ByKat Hours Updated
Comments 181 Comments

Coffee Break: Point-Toe Flats

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black ballet flats with removable Mary Jane strap

Oooh: I always like a strappy flat, but it can be so hard to find sophisticated options. Mary Jane flats are, of course, having a moment, but even with those they often have a little girl vibe.

Jennifer Chamandi always does strappy work shoes wonderfully, whether they're heels or flats. I like these sleek ones, pictured here in black and tulle, but also available in a gray snake and a plain black leather.

It's also nice that the strap is removable, giving you more options for how to wear the shoes.

You can find the shoes at NET-A-PORTER, Bergdorf Goodman, Farfetch, and others. The pictured shoes are $695.

Sales of note for 2/7/25:

  • Nordstrom – Winter Sale, up to 60% off! 7850 new markdowns for women
  • Ann Taylor – Extra 25% off your $175+ purchase — and $30 of full-price pants and denim
  • Banana Republic Factory – Up to 50% off everything + extra 15% off
  • Boden – 15% off new season styles
  • Eloquii – 60% off 100s of styles
  • J.Crew – Extra 50% off all sale styles
  • J.Crew Factory – 40% off everything including new arrivals + extra 20% off $125+
  • Rothy's – Final Few: Up to 40% off last-chance styles
  • Spanx – Lots of workwear on sale, some up to 70% off
  • Talbots – 40% off one item + free shipping on $150+

181 Comments

  1. Asking here because I know it’s a First World Problem I would feel uncomfortable discussing with friends IRL. I own a rental property that has been a headache for some time now. I did look into selling it a year or so ago, but I would net nothing from that sale, so I held on. Now the issues have escalated (too many to list), and I am stressed out while handling family and work loads as well. I currently have a tenant there. I know the “spring market” would be best… Should I wait until then and sell?
    Please be kind. Give me hope, your real estate wisdom, anything!

    1. Sell it whenever you can sell it. Don’t try to time the market. If there are issues now, it’s extremely unlikely they’ll get better.

      1. +1

        Sometimes you just have to cut your losses, and get rid of it as soon as you can.

        Quality of life is very, very important.

    2. If you think it would be another investor buying the property, I don’t think you need to time the market that way?

    4. Have you considered just hiring a property manager? Put some distance between you being the direct landlord. While it costs money it’s also a way to not make an emotional decision.

    5. It’s a totally reasonable problem and may be first world problems, but we live in the first world, so let go of that guilt.

      When is your tenant’s lease up? Factor in that if you try to sell while they’re still in residence, you will need them to cooperate. FWIW we bought a rental property and the seller had included a cash bonus for the tenant when the sale went through, to incentivize the cooperation, so you might consider that.

      Definitely agree that you should consider a property manager if the problems you have are the kind that would be addressed by that. The fee is usually under 10% of the rent.

      1. that took a dark turn. when did c-re t t e become a place to crowdsource how to destroy your tenants?

    7. My solution was hiring a property management company. I almost forget I own a rental until I see the check get deposited. Highly recommend. It has been 2 years and I might sell eventually but it will not be a sale forced by stress.

  2. Has anyone had Botox in the armpits for excessive sweating?

    If so did it work? How was the procedure pain wise and how quickly was it effective? How many treatments did you need, how many follow ups etc? Thanks!

    1. I looked into it, briefly. Had excessive sweating, which was very noticeable and embarrassing. A coworker had done it and loved it. She definitely recommended it. I believe she had regularly recurring maintenance treatments and always expected to, but I forget the details. Before pursuing it, on a whim I tried Certain Dri, and that resolved my issues. I use it for 1-3 applications roughly once a year or so and it’s been night and day difference for me, for now many years. (I can’t believe how long I let that issue impact my self esteem when there was something cheap and easy that would resolve it)

      1. This is for my young adult daughter. The skin under her arms is too sensitive for the high strength antiperspirants. She has tried that one and a prescription one (don’t know the name) and her underarms were raw! That’s why the Botox is the next step.

        1. I had a similar problem from my teenage years through my early 30s. I ended up trying Native deodorant (the sensitive line without baking soda) and after a few weeks, not only did I stop turning into a sweaty mess but I stopped smelling weird/chemically. I think I have an aluminum and a baking soda sensitivity (experienced the same redness, rawness, plus weird smell). It’s been night and day, honestly changed my life.

        2. is she applying at night before bed? I agree certain dri is painful, but I’ve read that any anti perspirant will work better when applied at night due to how the hormones work or something .

    2. Thanks all for the feedback.

      Please believe me when I say she has tried and exhausted every possible deodorant and antiperspirant option, including taking a break from all of them. Which is why insurance has approved the Botox treatment.

      It’s so bad she came out from work two days ago with stains down to nearly her waist on her shirt. It really is a problem for her to have a normal job and look presentable.

      1. It’s a frustrating and difficult problem; I believe you. I have a severe Botox contraindication so I can’t speak to the experience of treating it with Botox; I ended up taking entirely other approaches since for me it was secondary to a nerve issue. I really hope the Botox works for her!

      2. I have not tried Botox but for the shirt problem, they make undershirts for situations like this with special guards for the underarm area. I use one that I got from Amazon and it really works!

      3. This is a very out of the box solution, but I found that when I a) stopping drinking alcohol 100% and b) got on antianxiety meds my overall water-fountain armpits reduced the nonsense by about 90%. (You can also see how a and b are related, heh!) I think one thing most people giving advice about sweat don’t know is that anxiety or fear sweat is different than exertion or “everyday” sweat. The latter seems to dry up really easily and is low in volume. Fear and anxiety sweat just builds on itself and has a different chemical makeup and odor. It’s really hell, honestly I feel for her. For like 15+ years I only wore dark colors or busy prints and I tried everything too.

    4. I’ve done it and it has been amazingly effective for me. I would sweat through a blazer, and now I feel confident wearing anything without worrying about sweating through it. My insurance covers it. I go through my derm and do it twice per year. It is uncomfortable getting it done, but it’s so worth it to me that I’ll continue to do it.

  3. I’m starting to seriously freak out about the possibility that Trump might win. Am I in a blue silo? Is it truly going to be horrible (in a democracy’s over, Hitler’s reincarnated kind of way) or just “haha our national secrets are for sale” horrible?

    1. Pretty sad when the better alternative is that our national secrets are for sale.

      Extremely worried here and I would really like left leaning voters to stick together and quit dividing ourselves over issues like Gaza (which Trump will unquestionably be worse for.)

      1. yes very nervous about a repeat of 2016 when people didn’t like their choices so they stayed home or voted for someone else ‘out of protest.’ um, what exactly does that accomplish?!?

        3. Do you actually know people doing this? The Stein voters I know never really vote for Democrats and just want to feel better about voting for Trump without actually voting for Trump.

      3. A 30-something, gay woman in my office was recently telling me how she could not vote for either Harris or Trump “in good conscience.” I said a seriously modified version of what I think due to office policies. I just do not understand people.

    2. I am a deep Dem, and I think the catastrophization on the left is a little embarrassing. He was a bad president. He will be a bad president again. I hope he doesn’t get elected. I do not think it is the end of the American experiment if he does, because I do not think it was the end of the American experiment the first time.

      (Again, deeply disagree with his policies, think he made life worse for a lot of people (including groups I really care about), do not think the more dramatic takes on this are accurate or helpful).

      1. Do you just not believe the stories about crises averted from his first term, or do you not believe that he’ll enact his plans to get rid of people who were in his way before?

        1. I do not believe he is omnipotent, and I think many narratives on the left (including how you’re posing these questions) presume he is.

          1. It’s not a “narrative” though — lots of generals and White House employees from the first term have come out with horror stories about the things that he wanted to do but was dissuaded from doing by a “normal” Republican. It’s an objective fact that in his first term he was surrounded by far more “normal” Republicans than he is now.

          2. That is the definition of a “narrative,” and it’s a little scary you don’t see that.

          3. It’s not a media narrative. I understand feeling like the media has a bias but why don’t you trust the generals and all the people that were there?

          5. Because “narrative” implies creative writing, i.e., the suggestion that it’s just your opinion, man, as opposed to unassailable fact.

      2. He didn’t succeed in stealing the election because of Mike Pence and a few brave state level election officials. He’s already replaced Pence with someone who promises to do what Pence wouldn’t, and there’s no reason to think those other dominoes will stand either. Trump is acting way more emboldened than he was then, and will be further emboldened if he wins this year. As crazy as he was then, it’s really nothing compared to the rhetoric now.

        1. I just fundamentally disagree with the idea that he is capable of destroying America. I think it overestimates his capabilities and (severely) underestimates the country.

          We can agree to disagree on that.

          1. There are plenty of periods of American history that I wouldn’t want to revisit at all, even though they also didn’t destroy America.

          3. I don’t think he can “destroy America.” Like I don’t think we’ll become a third world country overnight or anything. But democracy is fragile and honestly we’re already on the brink (if you listen to the experts, who I think are pretty objective/non-partisan). January 6 was crazy and what happens if he’s elected again will be far worse.

          4. I don’t think he personally can destroy America, but he can absolutely make changes that will make life worse for millions of people and also create structural changes in our government (like to the federal judiciary) which continue to wreak havoc and make positive changes even more difficult for decades to come. Presidencies have lasting consequences. It’s not four bad years and then bippity boppity boo, everything is back to normal.

          5. I think you need to reconsider your position and educate yourself more about the actual threat. You seem to be basing your opinion on faith bordering religion.

          6. Yes, but there is no disagreement that the choice in this election is between President Harris or King Trump.

        2. ok TRUMP is just a narcicistic fat rapist but the people behind him (Thiel, Bannon, Putin, etc) MIGHT be Voldemort.

        3. But he is an incoherent felon, in contrast to an accomplished public servant. He has disqualified himself from earning anyone’s vote. YOU might be ok if he is elected, but I assure you there are many, many people in the United States who rightly are scared sh*tless about that possibility, due to the harm they anticipate personally suffering under a Trump administration.

    3. I don’t think the world will end and life probably won’t change much for upper middle class white people like me, but I do think American democracy as we know it will be over, at least for a long time. He tried to steal the election in 2020 and almost succeeded. He’s openly trying to steal this one. I don’t think he’ll personally run in 2028 (he may even be dead by then) but I think MAGA will follow his playbook and successfully rig the election for Trump Jr or Vance or whoever the anointed successor is.

      1. Even in just one term, I’m worried the economy will take a dive, that education and healthcare will be substantially undermined, and that Ukraine will be abandoned to Russia.

        1. Oh yeah absolutely Ukraine’s a goner if he’s elected. I actually don’t think Gaza is, although I think that may be an unpopular opinion on the left. I think Netanyahu will immediately do a ceasefire deal to boost Trump’s popularity. The reason he hasn’t done one already is he’s trying to get Trump elected.

      2. Do we even have a democracy now? I’m honestly not sure. Trump is literally buying votes in Pennsylvania and no one cares.

    4. Please, let’s not start another pointless thread.

      Use your anxiety and focus it and DO something, if you are this panicked.
      Sign up to be a poll watcher.
      Get out the vote in your state.
      Contact League of Women Voters if you aren’t sure how to help.
      Donate.
      Get active in your local community elections.
      Run for office.

      DO SOMETHING. Something more than anxiety post here.

      1. People can post whatever they want and you can collapse whatever you want. Seriously – it’s SO easy to collapse the thread.

    6. It’s frustrating to be told that it’s no big deal, won’t be that bad, etc. when Trump has this to say about migrants (from The Guardian).

      “In some cases, they’re not people, in my opinion,” Trump said this March. “But I’m not allowed to say that because the radical left says that’s a terrible thing to say. These are animals, OK, and we have to stop it.” When they are removed, it will be, says Trump, “a bloody story”.

      When the dictator shows you who he is, believe him. He WANTS you to minimize and rationalize and justify. Stop playing into this hands.

    7. One comforting thought: the military swears an oath to the Constitution, not the President. The oath actually says, “…I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic, that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same…”

      In the days between January 6 and Inauguration Day, there absolutely were meetings in the Pentagon planning for how to remove Trump from power if he refused to leave. Civilians often have a view of the military as broadly uneducated and largely Trump-supporting, but the senior officer corps is highly educated and sophisticated and leans much bluer than many people suspect.

      So yeah, he might burn everything down during his time in office, but at least there’s a No Really backstop if he runs up against the Constitution.

      1. I don’t think the Pentagon can do much if MAGA-controlled state election boards declare their state won by the GOP candidate though. Like what would they have done if Trump had successfully persuaded the guy in Georgia to “find”him the 11,000 votes? IMO, that’s how the election will be stolen, not by him clearly losing but refusing to physically leave office.

      2. I live in the DC area and was living here during Jan 6. The prospect of going through that again, or some effort by the military to intervene against Trump, is pretty darn terrifying.

      3. He definitely knows this (and is not happy about the military refusing orders in the past). Hopefully his plans for getting around it aren’t realistic! It feels like he gets away with a lot of illegal stuff in general so I never know where the real lines fall.

    8. There’s still plenty you can do to help Harris win, like:
      -writing letters to Democrats who don’t vote often and live in swing states through Vote Forward
      -phone banking opportunities on the campaign website
      -donate $
      -invite friends to do one of the above with you

      Lots of people doing what they can do to help adds up to meaningful support.

    9. He’s not an original guy. If he wins (and I suspect he will not), I think it would be mostly a continuation of his last term, with some added horrible-ness and a definite economic downturn. I don’t think it would be instant Gilead, more current Hungary.

      1. Nobody on this thread has commented on how the Supreme Court “Do what you want, you’re immune” will affect Trump. He was previously reined in by advisors who told him he could not do things because they were illegal. Now? He’ll do whatever he wants with no guardrails. And he’ll install really bad people because nobody with any moral clarity will work for him. It will be ten times worse.

        1. Yeah I think it’s super naive to think his second term will be similar to his first term. He has no sane people around him now. In his first term he had a lot of smart, principaled Republicans around him and now it’s just sycophants.

        2. I’d like to think that’s because a good number of us are lawyers who understand that that isn’t what SCOTUS ruled.

          1. Be that as it may, King Trump would behave as if that were the ruling and cause exponential harm before any court proceeding could catch up. That’s his MO — doing all he can to get away with stuff, often quite successfully.

    10. The weirdest thing has made me anxious: there’s a funny TikTokker who makes “Trump was made to be a teenage girl” videos and the thing is….with the voiceover she uses for her skits you can hear people (a big crowd!) usually roaring and cheering with laughter. Over this drivel, word salad, mean-spirited stuff! It’s scary. It’s upsetting that so many fellow citizens would be excited to elect and follow a bully (and many other marks on his character, but for some reason, people cheering on a bully really gets to me).

  4. I think someone commented here a few months ago that they were going to have blepharoplasty with Dr Lorne Rosenfield in the Bay Area. I just had a consult with him this week for the same, and really liked him. If you have had the procedure and have any thoughts/updates, I would love to hear them! Also, did you have both upper and lower? I am considering doing both.

    1. Hi! That was me! I did upper only because I have hooded eyes, but I did not “need” lower, according to him. I am 5 weeks out now (also did boob job, tummy tuck and lipo). The bruising around my eyes was almost completely gone a week out, and was 100% gone in 10 days.

      I have faint scars still, inlcuding the corner of each outer eyelid. But I have green eyes, so I normally wear purplish eyeliner anyway, so it’s easy to hide. You really can’t see much unless you’re looking hard for it. My friends assure me that you’d really, really have to look to see it. I think they’re right.

      100% would do it again. I will warn that sometimes his office staff is a little disorganized, but I found that a small price to pay for one of the best in the country. They’re not operating on me–he is!

      1. Oh, also–my eyes were puffy/swollen for the first four days post-op, but I could have WFH with my zoom off for a few more days and been back to work a little after a long weekend. You’d need to be good with makeup too–I had pretty legit black eyes!

        It was the least painful thing going on with me, and by that, there was almost no pain in my eyes–it was everywhere else. Dr. R. is good at giving you the meds you need to not be in pain.

  5. Is there a lesser of evils when it comes to Amazon/Walmart/Target and delivery vs curb side pick up?

    1. What evils are you most concerned about?

      We primarily do Target curbside pickup of those three, in no small part because I do not like accidentally buying from a third-party seller and taking the risk that I am getting a gray market good or a fraud.

    2. I don’t have a whole lot of data for this, but I feel like of the three, Target treats their employees the best. I also like Target because I can get free two shipping without having to pay for an expensive membership like Prime. So I primarily use Target. Mix of delivery and curbside pickup. I try to do curbside pickup these days for the environment, and I get the pickup order when I’m already in the neighborhood anyway, so there’s not much added driving. Walmart is much closer to my house so I do that when I need something urgently and don’t have time to drive across town. We also shop for school supplies at Walmart because we shop with friends and that’s where they like to go. I do use A-zon occasionally when there’s a unique item I can’t find at Target or Walmart. Stuff for Halloween costumes has been a big one.
      I’d say 80% (Target)-15% (walmart) -5% (A-zon) is the break down.

    3. What issue are you most concerned about? Environmentally, research supports delivery being better than curbside or in person, though the specifics matter (whether you walk or drive and what you drive, if you bundle purchases, the delivery speed and whether something comes from a local warehouse or across the country).

      https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2022/11/researchers-tested-72-ways-to-get-groceries-to-your-doorstep-so-which-is-most-climate-friendly/
      https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/18/covid-retail-e-commerce-environment-522786

    4. Target and Walmart are going downhill on the third-party seller front – I recently got a “new” item from Walmart that still showed its “used – good condition” tag from eBay. Amazon is the absolute worst for that, though, and it scares me that people buy medications, supplements, and baby formula there.

  6. What’s everyone snacking on this afternoon? About to get a Barebells protein bar for myself.

    3. Nature Valley Protein bar with peanut butter and chocolate.

      Don’t worry, I’m not fooling myself that this is anything other than a candy bar.

  7. I don’t really understand exactly how modern warfare is supposed to work. You are supposed to notify people before you bomb an area to prevent/minimize civilian casualties, but then how do you do that without also notifying your intended targets?

    1. Maybe, just maybe, indiscriminate bombing campaigns aren’t appropriate in every situation.

    3. Put another way, embedding militants in civilian areas on purpose is a really good way to get a lot of civilians killed – which, of course, is also on purpose.

    4. Tell Hamas not to store weapons in private homes and hospitals. Tell Hamas not to build a network of tunnels under private homes and hospitals. When Hamas stops doing this, civilians will not be bombed. Tell Hamas to return the hostages.

      3. Ah yes, Hamas, well known for listening to randos on the Internet. This board is embarrassing.

        1. Some of these “randos” work in policy, politics, and human rights. Not that Hamas cares about any of that.

      4. This is the most intellectually dishonest discourse over world events that I have seen in my lifetime. And I am not a young woman.

      5. You CANNOT justify going to war on civilians over hostages! I can’t believe this needs to be said.

    5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-5Q7yuaXjM
      Joan Rivers explained why the bombings sadly hit civilians. I am American and have guilt over Hiroshima, were these civilians warned? But this ended WWll. War is an unspeakable horror. I know the family of one of the hostages that was murdered by Hamas, and my family was murdered in 1941 in Lithuania.

    6. Frustrated that all the red tape is slowing the genocide?
      Don’t worry. Israel doesn’t actually feel constrained by the rule that they announce when they are about to target civilians. They only do it sometimes.
      But also, having this take a while is actually great for accomplishing the goal. It gives some thin cover to Israel while the famine and disease really take hold.

  8. What happened with Hurricane Milton? It was forecasted to be the storm of a century with all this devastation (“if you stay, you’re going to die”), but it seems like it…wasn’t? Did it just get smaller before hitting shore? Were forecasters wrong? I’ve barely heard anything about it. Just tuning into the news now and looking at downed fences.

    1. (Inhale, exhale)

      Had it moved a few miles further north, it would have wrecked the entire Tampa Bay region.

      Had the wind shear and good fortune of slower forward speed not happened, it would have hit as a Cat 4.

      Had the storm not split (rain to the north, massive surge to the south) not happened, it would have been devastating.

      And people did die. They died from tornadoes. Thankfully, they didn’t die in flooded homes.

      And frankly, I hate your attitude. If there is a 30% chance, hypothetically, of a storm completely wiping an area off the map, Katrina style, what do you THINK the meteorologists and government officials should tell people? “Don’t worry, it will probably be okay?” Or should they tell people to evacuate because “evacuate three times to save your life once” is basic common sense?

        1. My mother’s house was predicted the hit with fifteen feet of storm surge until that last minute swing to the south. She literally loaded up antiques left to her by her parents into a U-Haul and drove to Port Saint Lucie, because her house was predicted to be a fishbowl.

          I’m so sorry you don’t like my attitude. Kisses!!

          2. Gently, it sounds like you are not in a good emotional state to be online right now. Go focus on your family.

          4. Except for a couple of sentences I think your reply was perfect and those sentences are OK too and let us know your perspective

            Hope your fam is ok

        2. This is weird. Anon at 3:39 gave a full response that answered the question. Weather is unpredictable and things could have been much much worse. Everyone should be thankful that minute changes in the storm’s direction made for a better outcome.

          1. Thank you.

            One of the things they said about Milton is you know it’s going to hit *somewhere* as a major storm (Cat 3 and up). You’re in the cone, you prep for your own reasonable worst-case scenario.

      2. The anger and condescension in this comment is kind of hilarious given how banal the comment you’re responding to is.

        2. It’s not ‘banal’ to refer to massive hurricane damage as ‘a few downed fences’. Posters here know people directly and significantly impacted. The minimization of deadly weather events is gross.

          1. Thank you. I have spent the last five days with my stomach in knots, wondering if people I love will be safe, and if they would be homeless even if they stayed safe. I was literally shopping out sofa beds so my parent could move in with me, and asked for final photos of the home I grew up in.

      3. I like your attitude and your information. I don’t know what’s wrong with people on here. Deeply unhappy never satisfied people is my guess.

    2. You have to prep for the worst case scenario even though that rarely happens. If it had gone exactly as forecasted it would have been catastrophic. It ended up not being as bad as expected. This is a good thing.

    3. It ripped the roof of the baseball stadium where they planned to house emergency workers and there is massive flooding and like 3 million people with no power. A bit more than a few fences down.

      It hit further south than expected. That was the main reason there was not more damage. The area is less densely populated.

      1. Tampa Bay has 700 miles of coastline, which is 700 miles of homes and businesses, and hundreds of square miles that are really close to water. Sarasota has barrier islands and doesn’t have all of those bays and inlets.

        1. Also, the “dirty” side of the storm was south is Sarasota. Punta Gorda has been hit twice in recent years; everything down there has already been leveled or is rebuilt to modern code (elevated at least 11 feet above sea level, hurricane straps on the roofs, all that).

          Tampa Bay getting the dirty side of a hurricane? It hasn’t taken a direct hit like that in over a hundred years. All of those 40 or 50 year old houses that are six or eight feet above sea level would be driftwood.

        1. Forecasts are almost never perfect (nor is it expected to be, the dictionary definition of the word includes “estimate”). It was close, the storm just moved south a bit to a less populated area.

          1. This will lessen confidence in evacuation orders for the next storm though. I know someone who stayed and he literally does only have a broken fence.

          2. Ok? Plenty of people survived Katrina too. The fact that one random guy you know didn’t have any damage doesn’t mean the government was wrong to take the threat seriously.

          3. There’s always a margin of error on forecasts. I’m not a hurricane expert, but my understanding is that the forecast was well within the margin of error. Of course whenever you urge people to evacuate and their property survives mostly unscathed they may take evacuation orders less seriously next time. That’s a human nature problem. But scientists make the best forecast they can with the data they have available, and there’s no evidence they didn’t do that. If the worst case scenario had come true and they hadn’t ordered people to evacuate, the devastation would have been enormous.
            If you’re implying there was some kind of conspiracy here (which seems to be a subtext of your posts), that’s crazy.

          4. Oh my GOD please do not be this ignorant. Please. Please please. Yes, sometimes storms change course– this is WELL KNOWN. Sometimes they weaken (usually they do). That this occurs does not mean the forecast was wrong. Do you now anything about meteorology? Do you even understand how to read the maps of a hurricane’s predicted path? Emergency planners and meteorologists make judgments based on imperfect information, because perfect information doesn’t exist. This isn’t the same thing as being “wrong.” If someone “loses confidence” in evacuation orders because he doesn’t understand this… well then I guess my pity goes out to the first responders who will be put in harm’s way to rescue him when he ignores a warning to evacuate based on his own ignorance.

            Most people grasp the simple concept that weather –especially dynamic weather events–can’t be predicted with perfect accuracy. Most people understand the concept of probabilities.

        4. Try learning about midpoints/point estimates + ranges of certainty. It’s Statistics for Business 101. Everyone needs to understand how forecasting works and forecasts involve ranges and uncertainty.

      2. Yeah maybe it wasn’t the intention, but OP sounds disappointed there wasn’t worse destruction, which is pretty awful.

        1. That’s the impression I got as well. So, OP, you’re disappointed more people didn’t die?

    5. OP, I think it just is way too early to tell how the impact went. We won’t know about loss of life counts or damage estimates for several days. We just don’t know if people drowned in their houses until the houses are cleared. And obviously, it’s hard to predict impact far enough in advance to give evacuation orders effectively, because if you wait until 3 hours before the storm hits, there’s no time for people to get out and board up. So it’s a risk/benefit analysis.

      I do think it’s better for the government to err on the side of overly cautious when the trajectory involves a direct hit on a major population center. (Katrina was a disaster precisely because they were under cautious about the risks to the levees, and people died as a result). But obviously, it’s a matter of figuring out how to be appropriately cautious without causing panic or losing trust for the next one.

      We’ll know more in 3-5 days.

    6. Sometimes we are lucky and storms evolve and change course so the worst case scenario does not occur. That’s what happened. This was an extraordinarily powerful storm aiming for a populated area. That’s an objective fact. The storm’s course changed slightly which meant that Tampa didn’t get a direct hit. The storm weakened some–and you can find very smart meteorologists providing explanations about why at levels that lay people can understand–so it hit as a Cat 3 instead of Cat 4 or 5. Forecasters weren’t “wrong.” There’s a tremendous amount of variability in how storms evolve and it’s impossible to predict exactly what will happen during the life of a storm, and how this storm evolved was within the realm of possibilities. But people need to be warned of the worst case scenario and that’s especially true when there’s a good likelihood of it coming to pass. People also followed evacuation orders, which means fewer stories of daring rescues and death.

    7. Yes, it was fortunately not nearly as bad as predicted because some parts of the storm changed direction – but it was still pretty freaking bad. Ten people confirmed dead already, and massive destruction in some areas. The roof was torn off Tropicana Field, the MLB stadium in Tampa, which had reportedly been built to withstand 100-mph winds, and there are videos of construction cranes being blown over into office buildings in Saint Petersburg. According to Gannett, 3 million people in Florida are without power. I am hearing and seeing a lot about the damage from this storm, and it’s much more than downed fences.

      1. 500 residents in apartments in Clearwater needed to be evacuated after the rain caused substantial flooding (water up to the roofs of cars).

    8. I think it seems “less bad” because of Helene, which had absolutely catastrophic flooding (different terrain and there weren’t as many evacuation orders).

    9. OP, I totally get it. That mayor who said her townspeople were going to die if they stayed… The next time there’s a hurricane, there’s less chance people are going to listen to leaders because it does become like crying wolf. When she said that, it was a Cat 5 storm; it actually landed as only a Cat 3. And Cat 3s just aren’t that big of a deal. (Do not holler at me – my family and I have ridden out plenty of Cat 3s.)

      But I am genuinely worried every time a 5 lands as a 3, that the next time a 3 lands as a 5, there will be so much more destruction than necessary because no one will have listened.

      1. Are you contending that they deliberately blew this out of proportion? Do you have any evidence that they gave information known to be inaccurate about the probabilities of storm damage?
        Do you think the fact that lots of people did evacuate and/or took precautions due to the warnings has something to do with the fact that the death toll isn’t catastrophic at this point?
        Katrina was a Cat 3.
        Harvey was a tropical cyclone.
        Sandy was a Cat 3 when it made landfall but wasn’t even a hurricane when it caused the devastation that it did.
        Helene was a tropical storm when it destroyed Western NC.

      2. where are you seeing this poster speculating at all about the intent? This whole thread is assuming so much bad faith when posters are just trying to learn more. Yes, many people are not that familiar with how forecasting works, and how it plays out. It’s fine to ask some questions to learn more.

        1. When she suggested the mayor was crying wolf. What actually happened was that the mayor warned people of a very serious risk which, if it materialized, would have resulted in deaths of people who did not evacuate. There was every reason to believe that there was a high likelihood that the risk would materialize. Luckily, the risk did not materialize. This is an example of preparing for the worst based on a reasonable risk assessment and a some good luck, not “crying wolf.” It is much better to err on the side of caution. That is what our government is supposed to do: protect people. She’s not “just trying to learn more.” She’s not asking questions. She’s asserting that evacuation orders are problematic because the storm happened to be better than anticipated.

          2. you are projecting here. The poster is describing a real thing: a serious warning that was followed by a less serious than feared event can make people believe that the warning was overblown, and they might be more reckless about future warnings. Not blaming the mayor or any experts. It’s just an unfortunate thing that humans tend to do.

          3. “That mayor who said her townspeople were going to die if they stayed… The next time there’s a hurricane, there’s less chance people are going to listen to leaders because it does become like crying wolf. When she said that, it was a Cat 5 storm; it actually landed as only a Cat 3.”

            Hope that helps!

            Sure, people might stupidly conclude that because they got lucky and the worst case scenario didn’t materialize, they don’t need to evacuate next time. That would be stupid. And what should we conclude from the fact that people, especially those who are ignorant about science and risk management, often make stupid choices? What’s your suggestion? That authorities should NOT warn about the risks of the worst case scenario that is possible but not guaranteed to occur and allow people to just… die? Authorities should wait and see if the Cat 5 storm turns into a Cat 3 or stays a Cat 5 by the time it makes landfall, even though it would be too late to issue evacuation orders at that time?

            That’s what you all are missing. That poster was implying that the mayor and others giving similar warnings has done something bad or wrong and should not have done it. I’m not projecting, I’m just thinking critically about what she wrote. The poster did not simply lament human nature to fail to heed warnings, the poster focused on the words the mayor used and described such warnings as seeming like “crying wolf.”

    10. They weren’t wrong. This is how hurricanes are. My family went through a Cat 5 and survived. Had less personal damage than Helene. First, surviving a natural disaster doesn’t mean you want to enjoy going through them again. Same for tornadoes, earthquakes, etc. As you saw with the evacuation, coastal Florida has few roads to exit. It takes time and effort. Would you say to the person who survived and F5 tornado because it fell apart that forecasters were wrong to tell them to get into a tornado shelter? No.

      One of the worst storms I went through was a 3. Mother Nature isn’t perfectly neat. Emergency response needs to save as many lives as possible in advance. You want the biggest complaint to be they all survived.

      1. Right. I know someone whose house was hit directly by a tornado and they survived even though they didn’t have a basement to go to. It doesn’t mean it’s a smart plan to refuse to go to the basement during a tornado warning!

        1. I hitchhiked once. Survived. They even took me to a Starbucks for tea. Still don’t recommend it.

          (Long story, don’t want to get into it here.)

    11. The other thing I would add for those who don’t see as much devastation on the news is that what you “see” are often major population centers that have lots of media attention on them. Smaller communities are almost never covered nationally. I would look to the local newspapers for those stories.

    12. No need to be glib. Damage, thankfully, wasn’t as catastrophic as predicted. Which is excellent. We dodged a bullet.

      But just bc damage isn’t as bad as anticipated doesn’t mean it’s not devastating to those living it. People still died. Houses were still flooded. People still lost everything.

      As a disaster response professional, I cannot explain how taxed our system is right now. There’s a lot of work to be done in FL. We have very limited resources to do it. Every org and agency I know has zero capacity and no free staff. Most people I know are on 30 (or more) straight days of 12-16 hour days. Not a single day off. And no days off in sight.

    13. Living in New orleans here is my take: the weather Channel and the news media love to predict death and destruction from everything, they hype up every tropical storm like it could be the next apocalypse and convince my relatives that broken levees in Plaquemines Parish is New Orleans and I could be imminently in danger of dying. it’s not the same thing, but my family in the Midwest doesn’t know that. of course here, there was a real forecast with an incredibly dangerous storm, but when every tropical storm gets hyped to a national audience in the same way as cat 5 it dulls the effect. Florida was spared from a category 5 but still had a major hit. but we can (and should) ask whether the media is being truthful in their representations because it matters in how the public reacts to future storms. OPs question wasn’t dumb, or at least I took it as a question of whether the media overhyped or misreported on the possibilities. we should all think about our biases when reading comments before attacking each other.

  9. To the morning poster asking about a weekend in San Antonio, I left a comment with my recommendations! Feel free to ask more if needed.

  10. Late in the day, so may post this tomorrow.

    Where do you all keep important documents like your SS card, birth certificate, college diplomas?

    We’re in our early 30s and our parents still have these documents, but feel it’s time to store them ourselves. Just unsure where to keep them. Left them with our parents since it felt safer since we rent, but hopefully will be buying a place in 4-6 months.

    1. Fireproof safe in our apartment for passport, SS card, birth certificate. I have no idea where my diplomas are, lol.

    2. Renter here, we keep this stuff with our parents too. They have a large, fireproof, extremely heavy safe in the basement of their house with an alarm system. At most our apartment could fit a small safe that someone can easily walk off with. Once we own a home we’ll get a heavy duty safe to store our own documents.

    3. A safe, more for fire reasons than theft prevention, though I have a friend of a friend who lost ALL their documents in a burglary, leading to identity theft, and it has been a giant, giant pain in the ass.

      They had to cancel a trip that was a few weeks after the burglary. If you think about all the documents you need for travel, you can put together why it started to seem completely impossible that they might still go.

    4. Fireproof safe in our house; you could also go for a bank safety deposit box (but that’s less convenient). Diplomas are not in the same category, though — I mean, you could keep them with the other stuff, but those are replaceable and not related to legal/identity issues.

      1. Yes, but replacing these is a screaming pain in the ass. Plus losing them makes you incredibly vulnerable to identity theft, which is another screaming pain in the ass and possibly quite devastating.

        1. I don’t know. My dh’s bc was slightly more difficult to replace because he was born in a juristidiction that no longer exists so it took some hunting. Mine was just filling out a form and paying $10 via credit card. Our marriage license was all on line. Social security — there’s an online process, same with passports. Ours were lost in a flood so no real danger of id theft from the loss, although we are fully aware that our ss# are already compromised. Of all the things we needed to replace our documents were probably the easiest and most stress free.

    6. College diplomas are in mailing tubes in closets. Except the one that dh’s mother had framed for him (insert rolling eyes) and it’s shoved in the back of a closet somewhere.

      Birth certificate, marriage license, ss cards, our will are in a fire box in the basement. Passports are sitting on the desk upstairs because we were just applying for renewals.

      I recently had to get a new copy of our marriage certificate — easy peacy to replace.

  11. If a parent has something like 10 place settings of sterling, and 2 kids, I’d say to divide in half by place settings (you can buy more easily in common patterns and to me, I consider all sterling to “match” so even mixing patters would be OK for me). Silver is really expensive but doesn’t break when you ship it.

    For crystal and china, if you have 10 place settings, to me, if it’s old and not made any more, I’d propose keeping the set intact (or say one person gets all the crystal and one gets all the china). IDK who needs 5 place settings of anything.

    If it matters here, one sibling has 2 kids. One sibling has 4, so after this generation gets done fighting, the grandkids will really have random odd bits of things to fight over.

    1. Divide everything equally. If kids want to trade shares so that someone has a complete set, or even pay someone for their share, leave it to them to work out. Fairness is important here, so choosing one person for whatever set is the “favorite” will never feel fair to all.

    2. The thought of fighting over a full set of china is bizarre to me. Does anyone actually want it, or do they want to be chosen to receive it? What other memorable things might the same ancestor have – jewelry, watch, etc – that might carry similar emotional weight?

      1. You have no idea — squabbling over inheritances is a well-established tradition, wrapped up in lots of historical baggage not only regarding the deceased, but also those still living. It isn’t logical, it is explosively emotional. It’s best if you are in this situation to prepare yourself in advance by thinking about what is truly important and what you can just let go, and what you might need to concede to maintain good family relationships, even if it might be unfair, and even if seeing the family bully win yet again may be a crushing experience that no outsider can ever grasp.

        1. oh I have, hence my suggestion that it’s not literally about the china, but more about feeling important to the deceased. There were cousins after my grandparents’ death who were total vultures about the physical possessions but absolutely no one fought them on the formal place settings. The value was just deducted from their monetary inheritance.

          (As an aside, that last bit really got some people to think twice about what they wanted. Free? Great. Having to “pay” for it? Hm, maybe don’t really want it after all….)

    3. For us, one got the silver, one got the china, and one got the crystal. No dividing of sets, since, like you say, everyone will have teeny bits after a generation. If you want to part with any of them, you have to offer them to other relatives first. No melting down the silver!

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